What is Tesla's robotaxi business worth per TSLA share? Make eight calls about cost, price, and scale, and watch the number move. Figures use Austin fares and published estimates as of Oct 2026.
Illustrative model · Not investment advice · Not affiliated with Tesla
Per-vehicle annual P&L
Profit per vehicle vs. paid-mile share
Fleet ramp: value per TSLA share today
Each year's after-tax profit, plus the 2031 run-rate at the multiple, discounted back to today. Uses the blended Tesla profit per car at your current settings.
Fleet and per-share, both scenarios
Gross profit here is before Tesla's corporate overhead, R&D, and taxes. Tesla's margin on each car sold to an operator is spread over that car's life. Per-share uses a P/E-style multiple on that gross profit, so treat it as a ceiling, not a valuation.
v1.3 · 2026-10-11
Inputs grounded in: Austin Robotaxi fare $3.00 + $1.40/mi and a same-route Cybercab fare ~35% below Model Y (tparts.com, thedriven.io); 165 Wh/mi efficiency (TechSpot); ~$23–25K unit cost and Musk's sub-$0.20/mi target (Morgan Stanley via TechFlow); ~$0.81/mi current operator cost (Morgan Stanley via tesorb.com); courier pay ~$12.43/active hr at 1.51 deliveries/hr, $0.92/mi, base ~43% of payout (Gridwise); ~1/3 deadhead share for Uber/Lyft (Fehr & Peers via Urbanism Next). Daily miles, paid share, vehicle life, and the per-share inputs are my assumptions.